Personal finance predictions for 2010: Your mail

You'll likely see more credit card offers in your mailbox in 2010

By Jay MacDonald

2010 Financial Predictions
	10. Your spending
	9. Your credit card
	8. Your debit card
	7. Your rewards
	6. Your phone
	5. Your paycheck
	4. Your home
	YOUR MAIL
	2. Your ID
	1. Your kids

Notice a certain roominess in your mailbox in 2009? It isn't your imagination, but those credit card offers will start flowing again in 2010, experts say.

"Expect to see an increase in mail volume after Feb. 22 (when the Credit CARD Act takes effect), driven in part by Act-compliant offers," says Andrew Davidson of Mintel Comperemedia. "Initially, that increase may be slow as issuers keep a close watch on the competition. That game of wait-and-see" will continue into 2011, he says.

Any increase would mark a sharp reversal of recent trends. Credit card direct mail offers plunged from 1.4 billion in the third quarter of 2008 to just 391 million in the fall of 2009, Davidson says.

"The entire industry is down a whopping 71 percent from a year ago. Capital One, Chase and Citi showed the steepest declines. Capital One fell to eighth place, unheard of by this major mailer," says Davidson.

Major factors for the mail decline include the recession (who needs another card?), adverse public perception of credit cards in general, and growing consolidation within the card industry; Bank of America and Discover dominate the general card market; American Express, Chase and Citi the premium rewards market; First Premier the subprime market; and Barclay and HSBC the plain vanilla market.

However, spurred by the CARD Act's reforms, that decline should end soon, leaving your mailbox a little more crowded in 2010.

Next in the countdown, 2: Your ID 

See related: A comprehensive look at the Credit CARD Act

Published: December 31, 2009

	Three most recent Research, statistics stories: Rate survey: Credit card rates hold steady for 2nd week – The average interest rate on a new credit card offer remained unchanged this week, according to the CreditCards.com Weekly Credit Card Rate Report, though issuers are still tweaking APRs ... Consumer credit card balances keep rising, Fed says – Consumer credit card balances moved higher in December, as more Americans pulled out their cards for the holidays. But experts say that a return to holiday shopping may not be the only reason why consumers saw their balances swell ... Rate survey: Credit card rates hit lowest levels in 5 months – Interest rates on new credit card fell to their lowest levels since August 2011 this week, according to the CreditCards.com Weekly Credit Card Rate Report ...

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